Viewing archive of lördag, 3 mars 2001
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Mar 03 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 062 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 03 Mar 2001IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 02-2100Z till 03-2100Z Solar activity remained at very low levels. Occasional
B-class subflares occurred, most of which were produced by newly
numbered Region 9369 (N18W49). Region 9366 (S25E25) grew at a
moderate pace and showed some polarity mixing within the
intermediate portion of the group, but produced no flares. No
significant changes were noted in the remaining regions. New Region
9370 (N09E51) was also numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Activity is expected to be at low
levels. Region 9366 could produce an isolated M-class flare, if it
continues to develop.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 02-2100Z till 03-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during
the first half of the period. Activity increased to unsettled to
minor storm levels at approximately 03/1100 UTC following a CME
passage at the ACE spacecraft at 03/1040 UTC.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 04 March as CME
effects continue. Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet
to unsettled levels during the remaining two days with a slight
chance for isolated active periods due to weak coronal hole effects.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit may
reach high levels during the period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 04 Mar till 06 Mar
| M-klass | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 03 Mar 140 Prognoserat 04 Mar-06 Mar 140/135/135 90 Day Mean 03 Mar 162
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 02 Mar 006/008 Förväntat Afr/Ap 03 Mar 020/018 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar 015/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 04 Mar till 06 Mar
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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