Viewing archive of söndag, 28 januari 2001
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Jan 28 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 028 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 28 Jan 2001IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 27-2100Z till 28-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
9313 (S04W64) produced a long-duration M1/1n at 28/1603 UTC
associated with a halo CME. Region 9313 showed significant decay
prior to the flare. Occasional C-class flares occurred during the
rest of the period. The remaining regions were either stable or
declining. New Region 9328 (N06W58) was numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There will be a fair chance for an isolated M-class
flare sometime during the period.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 27-2100Z till 28-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. An isolated
active period occurred during 28/1200 - 1500 UTC. A proton event at
greater than 10 MeV began at 28/2025 UTC following the M1/1n flare
from Region 9313. By the close of the period, the greater than 10
MeV flux reached 23.1 pfu and was gradually increasing. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels late in the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to unsettled to active levels during 30 - 31
January in response to today's halo CME. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event is expected to end early on 29 January. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux may again reach high levels during the
first half of the period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 29 Jan till 31 Jan
| M-klass | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 28 Jan 168 Prognoserat 29 Jan-31 Jan 165/160/160 90 Day Mean 28 Jan 174
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 27 Jan 002/004 Förväntat Afr/Ap 28 Jan 007/005 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 007/004-010/008-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 29 Jan till 31 Jan
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 25% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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