Viewing archive of lördag, 20 januari 2001
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Jan 20 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 020 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 20 Jan 2001IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 19-2100Z till 20-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate, another M flare was
observed from Region 9313 ( S07E41). This event, an M1/2f, began at
20/1834UTC and was accompanied by minor radio emissions, including a
type II sweep. The flare developed into parallel ribbons and the
filament running North from the region erupted during the event. A
CME was also observed. The leader spots of this region, although
small, are of mixed polarities resulting in a gamma magnetic
configuration. A new region appears to be rotating on to the disk
near S07. A small filament disappeared near S18 E09 sometime after
19/2137UTC.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Additional M class flares are possible from Region
9313. In addition, several regions, including Region 9289 (S06
L=205) are due to return over the next couple days. Major flares
are possible if development in Region 9313 continues or if these
regions return active.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 19-2100Z till 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet to unsettled. A brief
period of active conditions occurred around 0900UTC.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally quiet to unsettled early in the period.
There is a good chance of active conditions later in the period as a
result of recent activity in Region 9313.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 21 Jan till 23 Jan
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 20 Jan 153 Prognoserat 21 Jan-23 Jan 155/160/165 90 Day Mean 20 Jan 175
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 19 Jan 003/004 Förväntat Afr/Ap 20 Jan 007/008 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 005/005-005/005-015/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 21 Jan till 23 Jan
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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