Viewing archive of måndag, 18 december 2000
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2000 Dec 18 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 353 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 18 Dec 2000IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9269 (N11W06) produced
today's largest flare, a C7/Sf at 1111Z. The event was associated
with a relatively slow, full-halo coronal mass ejection as observed
by LASCO imagery. An additional CME occurred, beginning with the
lift-off of a portion of the southern polar crown filament (near
S50E01) at 1824Z. The remainder of today's activity consisted of
numerous C-class events from a variety of regions, including Region
9278 (N09E51) which has rotated more clearly into view as a D-type
sunspot group. New Region 9279 (S11E62) was assigned today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance, however, for an isolated M-class event
from any of regions 9264 (S25W36), 9267 (N08W57), 9276 (S12W85), or
9278 (N09E51).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next two days. An increase
to active, with a possibility for minor storm levels, is expected on
the third day, in response to today's halo CME event.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 19 Dec till 21 Dec
| M-klass | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 18 Dec 198 Prognoserat 19 Dec-21 Dec 195/195/190 90 Day Mean 18 Dec 176
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 17 Dec 006/008 Förväntat Afr/Ap 18 Dec 008/010 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec 010/010-010/010-025/030
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 19 Dec till 21 Dec
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 20% |
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