Viewing archive of söndag, 15 oktober 2000
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2000 Oct 15 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 289 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 15 Oct 2000IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 9198 (S31E54) was
the most active, producing several C-class subfaint flares. Region
9194 (S12E23) exhibited some growth, but produced no flares. Two
filament disappearances were reported overnight, the largest being a
7-degree filament centered on N25W31. However, available SOHO/LASCO
and EIT data do not indicate any DSF-associated CME. A long
duration C3 flare at 15/0836UT was reported without optical
correlation, although EIT imagery suggests the likely source as
newly numbered Region 9199 (old 9169), located at N12E68.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low for the next three days. A chance for isolated
moderate-level flare activity exists for regions 9194, 9198, and
possibly 9199.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Some
indications of weak high speed stream effects from a coronal hole
became evident during the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active
periods, and minor storm periods at higher latitudes, are possible
in association with the coronal hole effects through day one,
followed by reduced activity for days two and three.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 16 Oct till 18 Oct
| M-klass | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 15 Oct 161 Prognoserat 16 Oct-18 Oct 165/175/180 90 Day Mean 15 Oct 176
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 14 Oct 027/042 Förväntat Afr/Ap 15 Oct 007/012 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 015/018-012/015-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 16 Oct till 18 Oct
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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