Viewing archive of söndag, 24 september 2000
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2000 Sep 24 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 268 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 24 SEP 2000IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 23-2100Z till 24-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. REGION 9166 (S11W57)
PRODUCED AN M4/2N FLARE AT 24/0338 UTC, AS WELL AS NUMEROUS C-CLASS
FLARES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. REGION 9169 (N11W09) ALSO PRODUCED
SEVERAL C FLARES, THE LARGEST BEING A C8/1F AT 23/2142 UTC.
TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY: 9172 (N12E70) AND 9173 (S13E73).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 9169 AND 9166 BOTH HAVE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
MAJOR FLARES AND ASSOCIATED PROTON ACTIVITY, AS THEY TRANSIT THE
GEOEFFECTIVE LONGITUDES TOWARDS THE WESTERN LIMB.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO ACTIVE. A LATE PERIOD
INCREASE TO ACTIVE LEVELS WAS OBSERVED DUE TO THE ONSET OF HIGH
SPEED STREAM EFFECTS FROM A CORONAL HOLE. GREATER-THAN-2 MEV
ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT MODERATE LEVELS DURING
LOCAL DAYTIME.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE, WITH ISOLATED MINOR STORMING,
DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED STREAM EFFECTS THROUGH DAY ONE.
EFFECTS SHOULD MODERATE ON DAY TWO, REDUCING TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS BY DAY THREE.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 25 SEP till 27 SEP
| M-klass | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| X-klass | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 24 SEP 225 Prognoserat 25 SEP-27 SEP 225/220/215 90 Day Mean 24 SEP 180
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 SEP 006/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 SEP 012/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 SEP-27 SEP 018/020-015/015-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 25 SEP till 27 SEP
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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