Viewing archive of söndag, 10 september 2000
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2000 Sep 10 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 254 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 10 SEP 2000IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE
DAY WAS A C1/SF FLARE AT 10/0010 UTC, FROM REGION 9158 (N29E32).
X-RAY FLUX SINCE THEN HAS REMAINED AT BACKGROUND LEVELS, EXHIBITING
ONLY B-CLASS FLARING.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGIONS 9158 AND 9154 (S17W75) ARE MOST LIKELY SOURCES FOR C-CLASS
FLARES. ISOLATED CHANCES FOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY STILL EXIST FROM
REGIONS 9154 AND 9151 (N10W87) UNTIL THEY TRANSIT THE WEST LIMB.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS, WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF ACTIVE LEVELS NEAR THE END OF DAY ONE, DUE TO ANTICIPATED
SHOCK ARRIVAL FROM THE CME ACTIVITY NOTED ON 09/0849 UTC. ACTIVE
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED FOR DAY TWO AND INTO DAY THREE. A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING DURING SHOCK PASSAGE ALSO EXISTS.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 11 SEP till 13 SEP
| M-klass | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 10 SEP 141 Prognoserat 11 SEP-13 SEP 140/135/130 90 Day Mean 10 SEP 180
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 SEP 006/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 SEP 004/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 SEP-13 SEP 018/020-020/020-012/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 11 SEP till 13 SEP
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 40% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 40% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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