Viewing archive of onsdag, 24 maj 2000

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2000 May 24 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 145 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 24 MAY 2000

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 23-2100Z till 24-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8996 (S22W87) PRODUCED AN M1 X-RAY FLARE AT 24/0546Z. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 FLARE OCCURRED AT 24/1152Z. THE LIKELY SOURCE FOR THIS FLARE WAS NEW REGION 9017 (S14E76) WHICH HAS EXHIBITED FREQUENT SURGING FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. REGIONS 9002 (N19W51) AND 9004 (N12W61) CONTINUE TO PRODUCE C-CLASS FLARES. NEW REGIONS 9015 (N13W08) AND 9016 (N26E46) WERE ALSO NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. ANY ONE OF A NUMBER OF REGIONS ON OR NEAR THE WEST LIMB ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE. NEW REGION 9017 MAY ALSO PRODUCE AN M FLARE.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 23-2100Z till 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT ACTIVE TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS. THE TRANSIENT OBSERVED TO PASS ACE AT 23/1625Z HERALDED THE BEGINNING OF A COMPACT AND COMPLEX MAGNETIC STRUCTURE. A NUMBER OF STRONG NORTHWARD TO SOUTHWARD VARIATIONS IN BZ OCCURRED THAT REACHED EXTREMES OF -36 NT TO +30 NT. CONDITIONS IMPROVED BY 24/12Z BUT SOLAR WIND VELOCITY REMAINS ELEVATED RESULTING IN ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY IS PRESUMED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE C7/1N FLARE THAT OCCURRED AT 20/0535Z.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS THROUGH DAY ONE AS THE PRESENT STORM SUBSIDES. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON DAYS TWO AND THREE.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 25 MAY till 27 MAY
M-klass50%50%40%
X-klass10%10%05%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       24 MAY 189
  Prognoserat   25 MAY-27 MAY  180/175/165
  90 Day Mean        24 MAY 196
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 MAY  019/022
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 MAY  048/070
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 MAY-27 MAY  018/030-010/010-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 25 MAY till 27 MAY
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt40%40%30%
Små stormförhållanden40%20%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%05%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt40%50%40%
Små stormförhållanden45%30%20%
Svåra stormförhållanden15%10%05%

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