Viewing archive of lördag, 13 maj 2000
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2000 May 13 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 134 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 13 MAY 2000IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. TWO M1 X-RAY FLARES
OCCURRED, ONE OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED AT 13/0144UT, THE OTHER AN SF
FLARE FROM 8998 (S13E66) AT 12/2329UT. A WEAK TYPE II RADIO SWEEP
(581 KM/S) PRECEDED THE OPTICAL FLARE. A LARGE CME WAS SEEN
ERUPTING FROM THE NE LIMB IN LASCO C2 AT 12/2325UT. EIT IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THIS CME ORIGINATED BEHIND THE LIMB AND IS NOT EARTH
DIRECTED. REGION 8996 (S22E57) MORE THAN DOUBLED IN SIZE TO AN AREA
OF 1210 MILLIONTHS. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY, 8999
(S13E66) AND 9000 (N10E14).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. A NUMBER OF REGIONS ON THE DISK ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING M FLARES AND X-RAY IMAGERY INDICATES ANOTHER STRONG REGION
IS ROTATING OVER THE NE LIMB.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. DATA FROM THE ACE
SPACECRAFT INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK HIGH SPEED STREAM FROM A
SMALL CORONAL HOLE.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
ON THE FIRST DAY THE
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE WITH A CHANCE
FOR MINOR STORMING. THE CURRENT HIGH SPEED STREAM SHOULD DIMINISH
EARLY, BUT A SHOCK ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLARE OF 10 MAY IS EXPECTED.
BY THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS THE FIELD SHOULD RECOVER TO
PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 14 MAY till 16 MAY
| M-klass | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 13 MAY 217 Prognoserat 14 MAY-16 MAY 225/225/230 90 Day Mean 13 MAY 187
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 MAY 019/022 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 MAY 015/018 PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 MAY-16 MAY 018/018-008/010-010/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 14 MAY till 16 MAY
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 50% | 25% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 05% |
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