Viewing archive of tisdag, 2 maj 2000
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2000 May 02 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 123 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 02 MAY 2000IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8971 (N19W74)
PRODUCED AN M2/1N X-RAY EVENT AT 02/1451Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED 250 SFU
TENFLARE. OTHERWISE, ONLY SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED
DURING THE PERIOD. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINATELY LOW WITH THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM
REGION 8970 (S13W78) OR 8971.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
THE SOLAR WIND WAS OBSERVED WHEN A TRANSIENT PASSED THE ACE
SPACECRAFT AT APRROXIMATELY 02/1040Z. THE SOLAR WIND VELOCITY
INCREASED FROM AROUND 600 TO MOMENTARILY OVER 900 KM/SEC. ACTIVE
CONDITIONS OCCURRED SHORTLY AFTERWARDS. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED SLOWLY
SUBSIDED AND LEVELED OFF AROUND 600 KM/SEC DURING THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE PERIOD; THEN BECOMING MORE QUIET TO UNSETTLED DURING THE LAST
HALF OF THE PERIOD.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 03 MAY till 05 MAY
| M-klass | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 02 MAY 153 Prognoserat 03 MAY-05 MAY 150/145/145 90 Day Mean 02 MAY 189
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 MAY 012/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 MAY 014/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 MAY-05 MAY 015/020-012/012-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 03 MAY till 05 MAY
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 60% | 40% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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