Viewing archive of måndag, 3 april 2000
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2000 Apr 03 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 094 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 03 APR 2000IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 02-2100Z till 03-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS
SUBFLARES OCCURRED. MOST DISK REGIONS EXHIBITED DECAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF 8933 (N18W57) THAT GREW AT A MODERATE PACE. PLAGE WAS
BRIGHT IN THIS REGION FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. OLD REGION 8906 WHICH
PRODUCED 8 M-CLASS EVENTS LAST ROTATION BEGAN TO APPEAR AT THE
SOUTHEAST LIMB. NO SPOTS WERE VISIBLE BUT A LARGE DIFFUSE PLAGE
FIELD BECAME EVIDENT.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO
MODERATE. REGION 8933 SHOULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE FREQUENT SMALL C-CLASS
EVENTS. SHOULD GROWTH CONTINUE HERE, A FILAMENT JUST TO THE EAST OF
THIS REGION MAY ERUPT WITH A LONG DURATION C-CLASS EVENT AND MASS
EJECTION. OTHER REGIONS ON THE DISK ARE CAPABLE OF ONLY ISOLATED
M-CLASS EVENTS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE FLARE POTENTIAL OF
RETURNING REGION 8906 AT THIS TIME. THE LACK OF DISCERNIBLE FLARES
FROM THIS AREA ARGUES FOR A REDUCED POTENTIAL FROM LAST ROTATION.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 02-2100Z till 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES
DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS BECAME ELEVATED BUT DID NOT REACH HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS MAY OCCUR.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 04 APR till 06 APR
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 03 APR 215 Prognoserat 04 APR-06 APR 218/215/210 90 Day Mean 03 APR 184
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 APR 014/016 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 APR 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 APR-06 APR 008/012-010/015-008/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 04 APR till 06 APR
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 25% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 30% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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