Viewing archive of fredag, 18 februari 2000
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2000 Feb 18 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 049 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 18 FEB 2000IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY FOUR LOW INTENSITY C-CLASS
EVENTS WERE OBSERVED TODAY. THE LARGEST WAS AN UNCORRELATED C2 AND
REGION 8869 (S21W35) PRODUCED A C1/SF WITH A HIGH SPEED (1400 KM/S)
RADIO SWEEP AT 18/0844UT. REGION 8872, WHICH PRODUCED AN M1/2N FLARE
WITH A FULL-HALO CME YESTERDAY, BECAME SPOTLESS TODAY. THE REST OF
THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE MOSTLY QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY LOW WITH A REMOTE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTONS AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT HIGH LEVELS FROM 18/1130 TO 18/1405UT.
AFTER THAT TIME THEY REMAINED AT MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD.
THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ACTIVE
TO MINOR STORM LEVELS WITH POSSIBLE MAJOR STORMING AT HIGHER
LATITUDES. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE SHOCK FROM A FULL-HALO CME
PRODUCED BY THE M2/2N EVENT ON FEBRUARY 17TH.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 19 FEB till 21 FEB
| M-klass | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 18 FEB 141 Prognoserat 19 FEB-21 FEB 140/140/135 90 Day Mean 18 FEB 166
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 FEB 006/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 FEB 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 FEB-21 FEB 008/005-030/025-030/050
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 19 FEB till 21 FEB
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 50% | 50% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 30% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 19% | 19% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 50% | 50% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 30% | 30% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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