Viewing archive of torsdag, 17 februari 2000
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2000 Feb 17 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 048 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 17 FEB 2000IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. AN M2/1B ACCOMPANIED BY A
TYPE II RADIO SWEEP OCCURRED AT 17/1852UT FROM REGION 8869 (S22W21).
AN M1 EVENT OCCURRED AT 17/2035UT ACCOMPANIED BY A 200 SFU TENFLARE.
THIS EVENT WAS REPORTED TO OCCUR IN REGION 8872 (S29E02). THE
OPTICAL OBSERVATORY WAS UNABLE OF DETERMINE THE SIZE AND INTENSITY
OF THE FLARE DUE TO POOR SEEING CONDITIONS. BOTH EVENTS PRODUCED
DISAPPEARING SOLAR FILAMENTS AS WELL. THESE EVENTS WERE SOMEWHAT
UNEXPECTED AS THE REGIONS SHOWED VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY PRIOR TO
FLARING. THE REST OF THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE MOSTLY QUIET AND
STABLE.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE PERIOD. ACTIVITY COULD INCREASE ON THE THIRD DAY DUE TO THE M2
AND M1 EVENTS THAT OCCURRED DURING THIS PERIOD.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 18 FEB till 20 FEB
| M-klass | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 17 FEB 168 Prognoserat 18 FEB-20 FEB 155/150/150 90 Day Mean 17 FEB 167
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 FEB 006/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 FEB 008/006 PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 FEB-20 FEB 008/008-008/008-042/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 18 FEB till 20 FEB
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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