Viewing archive of måndag, 7 februari 2000
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2000 Feb 07 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 038 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 07 FEB 2000IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8861 (N08W40) PRODUCED
THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD, A C4/SF AT 07/1654Z. THIS REGION
WAS ACTIVE THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH FREQUENT PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS AND
SMALL C-CLASS FLARES. WHITE LIGHT GROWTH WAS ALSO IMPRESSIVE,
DEVELOPING FROM 20 MILLIONTHS YESTERDAY TO OVER 200 MILLIONTHS
TODAY. SOME MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY IS ALSO EVIDENT. REGION 8858
(N27E27) WAS ONCE AGAIN RELATIVELY STABLE, PRODUCING ONLY MINOR
C-CLASS ACTIVITY SINCE THE X1/3B FLARE ON 5 FEB. MODERATE MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY STILL EXISTS BUT LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN ANYTIME IN
THE PAST 48 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY NOTED IN THE REMAINING
REGIONS.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8858 AND 8861 BOTH HAVE POTENTIAL FOR M-CLASS
ACTIVITY.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED MINOR
STORMING PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THIS IS A CONTINUATION OF A
DISTURBANCE THAT BEGAN ON 5 FEB IN RESPONSE TO A FAVORABLY
POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WILL BE
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH OCCASIONAL MINOR STORMING PERIODS AT HIGH
LATITUDES DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATE
THAT THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD START SUBSIDING SOON. EXPECT MOSTLY
QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ON DAYS TWO AND THREE.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 08 FEB till 10 FEB
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 07 FEB 182 Prognoserat 08 FEB-10 FEB 185/190/195 90 Day Mean 07 FEB 173
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 FEB 021/024 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 FEB 020/025 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 FEB-10 FEB 015/015-008/010-005/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 08 FEB till 10 FEB
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 50% | 40% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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