Viewing archive of torsdag, 3 februari 2000
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2000 Feb 03 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 034 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 03 FEB 2000IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 02-2100Z till 03-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED, BUT REMAINED IN THE LOW
CATEGORY. SEVERAL C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES OCCURRED, MOST OF WHICH WERE
NOT OPTICALLY CORRELATED. REGIONS 8848 (S08W29) AND 8854 (S34E59)
EACH PRODUCED A SINGLE SUBFLARE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
OBSERVED IN ANY OF THE VISIBLE REGIONS. NEW REGIONS 8857 (S20E04)
AND 8858 (N23E73) WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT MOSTLY LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER, AN INCREASING TREND IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ON 05 FEBRUARY WITH THE RETURN OF PREVIOUSLY ACTIVE
LONGITUDES.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 02-2100Z till 03-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY REMAINED AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT
MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING THE FIRST TWO
DAYS OF THE PERIOD. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING 06 FEBRUARY DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. THE GREATER THAN
2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
TO NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 04 FEB till 06 FEB
| M-klass | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 03 FEB 154 Prognoserat 04 FEB-06 FEB 155/170/180 90 Day Mean 03 FEB 173
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 FEB 009/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 FEB 007/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 FEB-06 FEB 005/007-007/007-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 04 FEB till 06 FEB
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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