Viewing archive of lördag, 27 november 1999
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1999 Nov 27 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 331 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 27 NOV 1999IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 26-2100Z till 27-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT HIGH LEVELS. REGION 8771
(S14W78) PRODUCED AN X1/2B TENFLARE AT 27/1212Z. THIS REGION ALSO
PRODUCED TWO OTHER SIGNIFICANT EVENTS - AN M2/1N AT 27/0301Z AND AN
M1/1N AT 27/0549Z. THOUGH SOME DECAY WAS OBSERVED IN THE LAST 24
HOURS, THIS REGION RETAINS CONSIDERABLE SIZE AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY
AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB. REGION 8778 (S14W19) CONTINUES IN A
SLOW GROWTH PHASE AND PRODUCED A C5/1N FLARE AT 27/0452Z. A LARGE,
17 DEGREE FILAMENT ERUPTED FROM S50 NEAR CENTER DISK BETWEEN 26/1700
- 1930Z. NEW REGION 8782 (N11E01) WAS NUMBERED TODAY. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS. REGION 8771 (S14W78) SHOULD CONTINUE
PRODUCING M-CLASS ACTIVITY AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE WEST LIMB. AN
ISOLATED MAJOR FLARE IS POSSIBLE. REGION 8778 (S14W19) WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE C-CLASS ACTIVITY AND HAS POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 26-2100Z till 27-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET LEVELS THROUGH DAY ONE, WITH UNSETTLED
TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS LIKELY ON DAY TWO AND THREE. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A MINOR DISTURBANCE ON DAYS TWO AND THREE IN RESPONSE TO
YESTERDAY'S PARTIAL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION OFF THE WEST LIMB. WE
MAY ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH THE EFFECTS OF A HIGH SPEED CORONAL
HOLE STREAM BY DAY THREE.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 28 NOV till 30 NOV
| M-klass | 55% | 40% | 40% |
| X-klass | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 27 NOV 169 Prognoserat 28 NOV-30 NOV 160/150/145 90 Day Mean 27 NOV 165
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 NOV 002/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 NOV 005/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 NOV-30 NOV 007/010-015/015-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 28 NOV till 30 NOV
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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