Viewing archive of tisdag, 19 oktober 1999
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1999 Oct 19 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 292 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 19 OCT 1999IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD
WAS A C8/SF FROM REGION 8732 (N22W52) AT 19/1941Z. THIS REGION
PRODUCED SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS SUBFLARES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
REGION 8731 (N13W45) HAS DECAYED SLIGHTLY , PRODUCING OCCASIONAL
MINOR SUBFLARES. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BRIGHT SURGING WAS OBSERVED
ON THE SE LIMB BETWEEN 19/0700 - 1000Z, A CME FROM THE SAME LOCATION
OCCURRED DURING THAT TIME FRAME. NEW REGION 8737 (S15E14) WAS
NUMBERED TODAY AND PRODUCED A SUBFLARE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THOUGH LARGE AND MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX REGION 8731 HAS
SHOWN SIGNS OF DECAY, IT MAINTAINS POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS
EVENT. REGION 8732 IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRODUCING C-CLASS
ACTIVITY. REGION 8737, IF IT MAINTAINS ITS PRESENT GROWTH RATE, WILL
SOON BECOME A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS WITH
OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS OBSERVED DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS AT
HIGH LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN TWO MEV ELECTRON FLUX REMAINED AT
MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. OCCASIONAL ACTIVE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON DAYS TWO AND THREE AS A CORONAL HOLE
MOVES INTO A GEOEFFECTIVELY FAVORABLE POSITION.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 20 OCT till 22 OCT
| M-klass | 45% | 45% | 40% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 19 OCT 170 Prognoserat 20 OCT-22 OCT 170/165/160 90 Day Mean 19 OCT 159
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 OCT 006/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 OCT 007/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 OCT-22 OCT 010/008-012/015-012/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 20 OCT till 22 OCT
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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