Viewing archive of torsdag, 16 september 1999
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1999 Sep 16 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 259 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 16 SEP 1999IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 15-2100Z till 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT THIS PERIOD
WAS A C7/SF FROM REGION 8700 (N14E31). OCCASIONAL MINOR C-CLASS
SUBFLARES WERE ALSO OBSERVED IN REGIONS 8699 (N22W39) AND 8692
(S26W41). AN IMPRESSIVE DARK, 50 DEGREE FILAMENT ERUPTED FROM
NORTH-CENTER DISK. THIS FILAMENT WAS ACTIVE FOR MOST OF THE PAST 24
HOURS. ELEVATION WAS FIRST DETECTED AT AROUND 16/1230UT WITH THE
TOTAL ERUPTION OF THIS TWO-PART FILAMENT OCCURRING AT 16/1620UT. THE
EVENT WAS OBSERVED ON BOTH GROUND AND SPACE-BASED INSTRUMENTS WITH A
LARGE CME OBSERVED BY LASCO.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. SEVERAL EXISTING SUNSPOT REGIONS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
C-CLASS ACTIVITY WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR A LOW M-CLASS.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 15-2100Z till 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS WITH
ISOLATED MAJOR STORMING PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES. A SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF SOUTHWARD BZ AND A 600KM/S SOLAR WIND SPEED FOLLOWED A
SUDDEN IMPULSE (SI) OBSERVED AT 15/2019UT.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE WITH OCCASIONAL MINOR STORMING MOSTLY
AT HIGH LATITUDES. DAY TWO SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE AS THE HIGH SPEED
STREAM SUBSIDES, EXPECT QUIET TO OCCASIONAL ACTIVE. WE MAY SEE THE
EFFECTS OF TODAY'S LARGE DSF ON DAY 3, LOOK FOR ACTIVE TO MINOR
STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE DAY 3.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 17 SEP till 19 SEP
| M-klass | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 16 SEP 158 Prognoserat 17 SEP-19 SEP 160/165/170 90 Day Mean 16 SEP 164
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 SEP 021/032 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 SEP 025/030 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 SEP-19 SEP 020/025-015/020-012/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 17 SEP till 19 SEP
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 50% | 40% | 50% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 40% | 50% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 50% | 25% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 10% |
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