Viewing archive of tisdag, 31 augusti 1999
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1999 Aug 31 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 243 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 31 AUG 1999IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 30-2100Z till 31-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY RETURNED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 8681
(N22W30) PRODUCED FOUR MID TO HIGH LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS. THE LARGEST
WAS A C8/SF AT 31/0554Z. THIS REGION BEGAN TO DECAY BUT RETAINED ITS
ANOMALOUS MAGNETIC STRUCTURE. IN PARTICULAR, THE CENTER NEGATIVE
FIELDS HAVE BECOME PINCHED. REGION 8674 (S23W60) CONTINUED TO DECAY
AND PRODUCED ONLY A FEW MINOR SUBFLARES. THIS REGION RETAINED SOME
MIXED POLARITIES BUT THE DELTA CONFIGURATION APPEARED TO FADE. THE
M3/2B FROM REGION 8681 AT 30/1805Z DID IN FACT PRODUCE A CORONAL
MASS EJECTION. HOWEVER, THE CME WAS FAIRLY NARROW IN LONGITUDINAL
EXTENT AND APPEARED TO PROPAGATE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE ECLIPTIC
PLANE.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO
MODERATE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGIONS 8681 AND 8674 REMAIN
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS BUT THAT CAPABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS DECAY IN THESE REGIONS CONTINUES. THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DECAY PHASE MAJOR FLARE FROM REGION 8674 REMAINS.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 30-2100Z till 31-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PRIMARILY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THE MOST
DISTURBED PERIOD WAS FROM 31/0600-1200Z. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY
INCREASED SLOWLY DURING THE PERIOD TO NEAR 600 KM/S BUT NO SHOCKS
WERE OBSERVED. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT
REACHED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME DUE TO OBLIQUE
IMPACTS FROM RECENT CMES THAT WERE NOT DIRECTLY AIMED AT THE EARTH.
THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A SOLAR PROTON EVENT FROM REGION
8674 DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 01 SEP till 03 SEP
| M-klass | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| X-klass | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 31 AUG 183 Prognoserat 01 SEP-03 SEP 175/160/148 90 Day Mean 31 AUG 169
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 AUG 013/020 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 AUG 014/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 SEP-03 SEP 012/012-010/012-010/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 01 SEP till 03 SEP
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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