Viewing archive of fredag, 30 juli 1999
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1999 Jul 30 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 211 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 30 JUL 1999IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 29-2100Z till 30-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8649 (S15W30)
PRODUCED AN M1/1B FLARE AT 30/1520Z WITH MINOR CENTIMETRIC BURSTS.
THIS REGION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SLOWLY. REGION 8651 (N24E36) WAS
THE MOST ACTIVE REGION THIS PERIOD PRODUCING FREQUENT LOW-MID
C-CLASS FLARES. DRAMATIC GROWTH OCCURRED IN THIS REGION OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND NOW MEASURES OVER 500 MILLIONTHS IN WHITE LIGHT
AREA. REGION 8645 (S25W03) STABILIZED EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A
F-TYPE GROUP COVERING 600 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. REMAINING
REGIONS WERE MOSTLY STABLE.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT MODERATE LEVELS. REGIONS 8645, 8649, AND 8651 WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE C-CLASS FLARES AND WILL BE THE LIKELY SOURCE FOR ISOLATED
M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 29-2100Z till 30-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD BUT DISTURBANCES ASSOCIATED WITH RECENT CORONAL MASS
EJECTIONS FIRST IMPACTED THE MAGNETIC FIELD AROUND 30/1000Z. ACTIVE
TO MINOR STORMING LASTED THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT MINOR TO
MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS WERE EXPERIENCED AT MOST STATIONS FOLLOWING
AN INTERPLANETARY SHOCK ARRIVAL AT 30/1948Z. THE SUDDEN IMPULSE (SI)
MEASURED 89 NANOTESLA AND THE GOES-8 SATELLITE UNDERWENT A
MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSING BETWEEN 30/2007Z - 2052Z.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT MINOR TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS WITH PERIODS OF SEVERE
STORMING AT HIGH LATITUDES ON 31 JULY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS BY MID PERIOD.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 31 JUL till 02 AUG
| M-klass | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| X-klass | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 30 JUL 206 Prognoserat 31 JUL-02 AUG 205/205/200 90 Day Mean 30 JUL 161
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 JUL 006/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 JUL 025/024 PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 JUL-02 AUG 040/040-015/015-008/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 31 JUL till 02 AUG
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 40% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 30% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 35% | 05% | 01% |
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