Viewing archive of torsdag, 1 juli 1999
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1999 Jul 01 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 182 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 01 JUL 1999IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 30-2100Z till 01-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY DECLINED TO LOW LEVELS. SUBFLARE
ACTIVITY OCCURRED WITHIN A VARIETY OF REGIONS. HOWEVER, REGIONS 8603
(S14W25) AND 8611 (S25E07) WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BULK OF THE
FLARING. REGION 8611 SHOWED A SMALL INCREASE IN AREA DUE TO
PENUMBRAL DEVELOPMENT AND CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME MIXING OF
POLARITIES. IT PRODUCED THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE PERIOD: A C8/SF AT
01/1748Z. REGION 8603 ALSO SHOWED SOME POLARITY MIXING, BUT NO
GROWTH WAS EVIDENT. IT PRODUCED ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARES INCLUDING
A C5/SF AT 01/0147Z WITH A WEAK TYPE II RADIO SWEEP (EST. SHOCK
VELOCITY 600 KM/SEC). NEW REGIONS 8614 (N19E72) AND 8615 (S29E77)
WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR ISOLATED, LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS
FLARES.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 30-2100Z till 01-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING MOST OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE'S ALSO A CHANCE FOR ACTIVE PERIODS DURING THE
FIRST TWO DAYS IN RESPONSE TO A FAINT HALO CME SEEN ON 30 JUNE.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 02 JUL till 04 JUL
| M-klass | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 01 JUL 195 Prognoserat 02 JUL-04 JUL 195/190/180 90 Day Mean 01 JUL 147
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 JUN 003/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 JUL 009/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 JUL-04 JUL 012/012-010/010-007/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 02 JUL till 04 JUL
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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