Viewing archive of onsdag, 2 juni 1999
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1999 Jun 02 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 153 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 02 JUN 1999IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. C-CLASS ACTIVITY CONTINUED FROM
A NUMBER OF REGIONS. THE LARGEST X-RAY FLARE OF THE PAST DAY WAS A
C9/1F AT 02/0513UT IN REGION 8562 (S16W05). THIS REGION ALSO
PRODUCED A NUMBER OF SMALL SUBFLARES. A LARGE CME WAS OBSERVED
YESTERDAY IN LASCO IMAGES AT ABOUT 01/1930UT. SUPPORTING DATA
SUGGEST THAT THIS EVENT WAS FROM THE BACKSIDE OF THE SUN. NEW
REGIONS 8565 (S07E42) AND 8566 (N23E74) WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. M-CLASS
FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN REGION 8562.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A PROTON EVENT AT
GREATER THAN 10 MEV CROSSED THE 10 PFU EVENT THRESHOLD AT 02/0245UT.
SO FAR THE MAXIMUM FLUX WAS 48 PFU AT 02/1010UT. THIS EVENT REMAINS
IN PROGRESS. A POLAR CAP ABSORPTION EVENT, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PARTICLES, OCCURRED FROM 02/0857UT TO 02/1850UT. MAXIMUM ABSORPTION
WAS 2.2 DB. THIS PARTICLE EVENT IS BELIEVED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BACKSIDE CME OBSERVED AT 01/1930UT.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. NO EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE
BACKSIDE CME AT 01/1930UT. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETURN TO BACKGROUND LEVELS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 03 JUN till 05 JUN
| M-klass | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 02 JUN 173 Prognoserat 03 JUN-05 JUN 175/175/170 90 Day Mean 02 JUN 132
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 JUN 006/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 JUN 008/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 JUN-05 JUN 010/008-010/008-005/007
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 03 JUN till 05 JUN
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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