Viewing archive of söndag, 30 maj 1999

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1999 May 30 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 150 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 30 MAY 1999

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 29-2100Z till 30-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE PERIOD WAS HIGHLIGHTED BY SEVERAL SUBFLARES IN REGION 8558 (N16E43) AND A PAIR OF C1 X-RAY LONG DURATION EVENTS (LDE). REGION 8558 EXHIBITED STEADY GROWTH AND NOW CONSISTS OF APPROXIMATELY 30 SPOTS MEASURING 300 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. FREQUENT BRIGHTNESS FLUCTUATIONS AND SURGES WERE ALSO OBSERVED IN THIS REGION, BUT ONLY MINOR MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY WAS NOTED. THE FIRST OF TWO C1 LDE X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED AT 30/0328Z, LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A CME OFF THE NE LIMB. THE SECOND C1 LDE OCCURRED AT 30/1155Z AND ALSO APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A CME, THIS TIME FROM THE W LIMB.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. CONTINUED C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY FROM REGION 8558 AND C-CLASS FLARES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM 8560 (S24E35), 8552 (N19W18), AND 8559 (N20E03) WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR AN M-CLASS.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 29-2100Z till 30-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THE LONG DURATION C1 X-RAY EVENTS AND ASSOCIATED CME'S DUE TO THE PRESUMED DIRECTION OF THE EJECTA.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 31 MAY till 02 JUN
M-klass40%40%40%
X-klass05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       30 MAY 157
  Prognoserat   31 MAY-02 JUN  160/160/160
  90 Day Mean        30 MAY 131
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 MAY  003/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 MAY  007/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 MAY-02 JUN  010/010-008/010-008/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 31 MAY till 02 JUN
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt20%20%20%
Små stormförhållanden01%01%01%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt25%25%25%
Små stormförhållanden05%05%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%

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