Viewing archive of söndag, 14 mars 1999
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1999 Mar 14 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 073 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 14 MAR 1999IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8487
(N17E25) DISPLAYED NO REMARKABLE CHANGES IN SIZE OR COMPLEXITY, BUT
PRODUCED TWO LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS FLARES: AN M2/1N AT 14/0127Z AND AN
M1/SF AT 14 /1010Z. MINOR DISCRETE RADIO BURSTS ACCOMPANIED BOTH
FLARES. REGION 8485 (N23W09) REMAINED A MODERATELY-LARGE SUNSPOT
GROUP WITH MIXED POLARITIES. IT SHOWED AN OVERALL INCREASE IN
ACTIVITY AFTER 14/0000Z AND PRODUCED A FEW C-CLASS SUBFLARES, NONE
OF WHICH HAD SIGNIFICANT RADIO EMISSION. NEW REGION 8488 (S27E40)
WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8485 AND 8487 MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED M-CLASS
FLARES SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY INCREASED FROM QUIET TO QUIET TO ACTIVE
LEVELS BEGINNING AROUND 14/0900Z IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
IN THE SOLAR WIND FLOW (AS MEASURED BY THE ACE SPACECRAFT). CHANGES
INCLUDED A VELOCITY INCREASE FROM 380 - 640 KM/SEC AND INCREASED IMF
BZ VARIABILITY WITH MAXIMUM SOUTHERLY DEFLECTIONS TO MINUS 10 NT
(GSM).
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO VARY FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE FIRST TWO
DAYS DECREASING TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ON THE FINAL DAY. THE
GT 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE MAY REACH HIGH
LEVELS SOMETIME DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 15 MAR till 17 MAR
| M-klass | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 14 MAR 150 Prognoserat 15 MAR-17 MAR 155/150/140 90 Day Mean 14 MAR 142
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 MAR 004/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 MAR 015/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 MAR-17 MAR 015/015-015/012-012/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 15 MAR till 17 MAR
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 45% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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