Viewing archive of fredag, 5 mars 1999
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1999 Mar 05 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 064 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 05 MAR 1999IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THERE WERE SEVERAL MINOR
C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS THAT WERE NOT CORRELATED OPTICALLY DURING THE
PERIOD. THE LARGEST EVENT WAS FROM REGION 8477 (S26E15) WHICH
PRODUCED A C3/1N EVENT AT 05/1916Z. THREE FILAMENTS DISAPPEARED
BETWEEN 04/2058Z-05/1153Z IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE LARGEST BEING 38
DEGREES, LAST SEEN CENTERED NEAR S63E69. REGION 8476 (N18W49) AND
REGION 8477 HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW GROWTH DURING THE PERIOD.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW FOR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. REGIONS 8471, 8475, 8476 AND 8477 ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING C-CLASS EVENTS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED M-CLASS
EVENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BASED UPON THE CONTINUATION OF AN ELONGATED CORONAL HOLE
IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SUN. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS AROUND
05/0900Z.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE LEVELS
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE ELONGATED CORONAL
HOLE IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE THIRD DAY OF THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO
BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 06 MAR till 08 MAR
| M-klass | 25% | 25% | 35% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 05 MAR 128 Prognoserat 06 MAR-08 MAR 130/132/138 90 Day Mean 05 MAR 143
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 MAR 019/023 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 MAR 020/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 MAR-08 MAR 015/015-010/010-005/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 06 MAR till 08 MAR
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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