Viewing archive of söndag, 7 februari 1999
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1999 Feb 07 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 038 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 07 FEB 1999IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ISOLATED
B-CLASS X-RAY FLARES OCCURRED INCLUDING A SMALL OPTICAL FLARE FROM A
SPOTLESS PLAGE REGION NEAR N21E15. ALL SPOT GROUPS WERE SMALL,
QUIET, AND STABLE INCLUDING NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 8456 (N23E65).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
A GRADUAL INCREASE TO LOW LEVELS IS
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE EXPECTED RETURN OF OLD REGIONS
8439 (S23, L = 272) AND 8440 (N19, L = 265).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING MOST OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, ACTIVE LEVELS WERE DETECTED AT SOME MIDDLE AND
HIGH LATITUDE STATIONS DURING 07/0500 - 0600Z, 07/1000 - 1200Z, AND
07/1400 - 1500Z.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ON THE FIRST
DAY. AN INCREASE TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS IS EXPECTED DURING 09
FEBRUARY IN RESPONSE TO RECENT FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCES. ACTIVE
LEVELS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON 10 FEBRUARY DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS.
THE GT 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEO-SYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE MAY REACH
HIGH LEVELS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 08 FEB till 10 FEB
| M-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 07 FEB 110 Prognoserat 08 FEB-10 FEB 115/120/125 90 Day Mean 07 FEB 141
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 FEB 011/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 FEB 012/014 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 FEB-10 FEB 010/012-015/015-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 08 FEB till 10 FEB
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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