Viewing archive of måndag, 25 januari 1999
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1999 Jan 25 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 025 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 25 JAN 1999IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 8444 (N20W51)
PRODUCED AN IMPULSIVE M2/SN AT 25/0056Z WITH MODERATE RADIO BURSTS
IN THE 245-606 MHZ RANGE. THIS EVENT WAS PRECEDED BY A LONG DURATION
C3/SF AT 25/0012Z FROM REGION 8444. THIS EVENT PRODUCED A MODERATE
INTENSITY TYPE II RADIO BURST. REGION 8444 ALSO PRODUCED A C8/SF AT
25/1407Z. THIS REGION EXHIBITED SLIGHT GROWTH DURING THE PERIOD. ITS
FLARE PRODUCTION RATE BELIES ITS SMALL SIZE AND RELATIVE STABILITY
IN WHITE LIGHT. IT IS LIKELY THERE ARE MIXED POLARITIES IN THIS
REGION BUT THE LACK OF MAGNETOGRAPH DATA PREVENTED VERIFICATION.
REGIONS 8439 (S23W93) AND 8440 (N19W87) MAY HAVE PRODUCED SEVERAL
SMALL X-RAY ENHANCEMENTS.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY LOW. REGION 8444 IS OBVIOUSLY CAPABLE OF GENERATING
OCCASIONAL SMALL M-CLASS EVENTS. HOWEVER, ANY SIMPLIFICATION IN THIS
SMALL REGION COULD RESULT IN THE CESSATION OF FLARE PRODUCTION.
REGIONS 8439 AND 8440 REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL M-CLASS
FLARES. THIS IS A PERSISTENCE FORECAST DUE TO THE FORESHORTENING OF
THESE REGIONS.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES
DECREASED DURING THE PERIOD. THE GT 10 MEV PROTON ENHANCEMENT
CONTINUED SLIGHTLY ABOVE BACKGROUND. THE FORBUSH DECREASE THAT BEGAN
ON 23 JAN CONTINUED TO SLOWLY RECOVER.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. BRIEF
PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO A THIN TRANSEQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE THAT
PASSED CENTRAL MERIDIAN ON 24 JAN.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 26 JAN till 28 JAN
| M-klass | 45% | 30% | 20% |
| X-klass | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 25 JAN 138 Prognoserat 26 JAN-28 JAN 125/120/118 90 Day Mean 25 JAN 144
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 JAN 011/013 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 JAN 009/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 JAN-28 JAN 008/010-010/010-010/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 26 JAN till 28 JAN
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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