Viewing archive of lördag, 28 november 1998
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1998 Nov 28 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 332 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 28 NOV 1998IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 27-2100Z till 28-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME HIGH. REGION 8395 (N20E33)
PRODUCED A X3/3N AT 28/0552Z. THIS EVENT HAD TYPE II/IV SWEEPS AND
MODERATE CENTIMETRIC RADIO BURST INCLUDING 3600 SFU'S AT 2695 MHZ. A
PARTIAL-HALO CME WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLARE. OBSERVATORIES
REPORTED SOME SPOT GROWTH PRIOR TO THE FLARE. REGION 8395 IS NOW A
MODERATELY COMPLEX F-TYPE GROUP WITH A BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC
CONFIGURATION. IT PRODUCED A FEW SUBFLARES SHORTLY AFTER THE X3/3N,
BUT HAS BEEN MOSTLY STABLE SINCE 28/1400Z. REGION 8393 (S18E12)
DISPLAYED A BIT OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY, BUT WAS STABLE DURING THE
PERIOD. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE. NO NEW REGIONS WERE
NUMBERED.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGION 8395 HAS MAINTAINED A LARGE FIELD OF NEAR FLARE
INTENSITY PLAGE SINCE THE X-FLARE TODAY. FREQUENT SUBFLARES,
FLUCTUATIONS, AND SURGES ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
MAJOR FLARE. REGION 8393 MAY PRODUCE C-CLASS ACTIVITY WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 27-2100Z till 28-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH DAY 1. A MINOR DISTURBANCE FROM THE
M1/2N FLARE EARLY ON THE 27TH MAY CAUSE ACTIVE CONDITIONS ON DAY 2
AND 3.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 29 NOV till 01 DEC
| M-klass | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| X-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 28 NOV 165 Prognoserat 29 NOV-01 DEC 165/165/170 90 Day Mean 28 NOV 132
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 NOV 008/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 NOV 005/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 NOV-01 DEC 005/010-015/018-012/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 29 NOV till 01 DEC
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 35% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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