Viewing archive of torsdag, 15 oktober 1998
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1998 Oct 15 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 288 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 15 OCT 1998IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT LOW LEVELS. ISOLATED B- AND
C-CLASS SUBFLARES OCCURRED. MODERATE GROWTH WAS OBSERVED IN REGION
8360 (S19W25), BUT IT REMAINED STRUCTURALLY SIMPLE. THREE NEW
REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED: 8361 (N14W10), 8362 (N20E73), AND 8363
(N26E47), ALL OF WHICH WERE SMALL, SIMPLE SPOT GROUPS.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT LOW LEVELS. REGIONS 8358 (N15W26) AND 8360 APPEAR CAPABLE OF
C-CLASS FLARE PRODUCTION. REGION 8360 MAY ALSO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
M-CLASS FLARE, SHOULD ITS PRESENT RATE OF GROWTH CONTINUE.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER,
ACTIVITY INCREASED DURING 15/1600-1800UT WITH UNSETTLED LEVELS
DETECTED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS AT
HIGH LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE REMAINED AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE PERIOD. AN
INCREASE TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ON THE FINAL DAY.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 16 OCT till 18 OCT
| M-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 15 OCT 131 Prognoserat 16 OCT-18 OCT 135/140/140 90 Day Mean 15 OCT 131
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 OCT 002/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 OCT 004/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 OCT-18 OCT 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 16 OCT till 18 OCT
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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