Viewing archive of onsdag, 12 augusti 1998
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1998 Aug 12 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 224 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 12 AUG 1998IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8293 (S23W58) PRODUCED
C1 SUBFLARES AT 12/1159Z AND AGAIN AT 12/1759Z. THIS REGION'S
MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION SIMPLIFIED SLIGHTLY AND OVERALL DECAY WAS
OBVIOUS IN BOTH WHITE LIGHT AND H-ALPHA. REGION 8299 (N16E14) IS THE
LARGEST REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK COVERING 520 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE
LIGHT AREA. IT PRODUCED SEVERAL PLAGE ENHANCEMENTS IN THE PAST 24
HOURS BUT NO FLARES WERE OBSERVED. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WAS
NOTED. NEW REGION 8302 (S14E30) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGION 8293, THOUGH DECAYING, IS STILL QUITE ACTIVE AND CAPABLE OF
MORE C-CLASS ACTIVITY. REGION 8299 IS ALSO LIKELY TO PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES. BOTH REGIONS HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
M-CLASS.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE
CONDITIONS WERE EXPERIENCED AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING NIGHT TIME
HOURS.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS
MOSTLY AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 13 AUG till 15 AUG
| M-klass | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 12 AUG 147 Prognoserat 13 AUG-15 AUG 145/145/140 90 Day Mean 12 AUG 112
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 AUG 004/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 AUG 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 AUG-15 AUG 010/013-005/008-005/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 13 AUG till 15 AUG
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 20% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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