Viewing archive of söndag, 9 augusti 1998
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1998 Aug 09 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 221 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 09 AUG 1998IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 08-2100Z till 09-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8299 (N15E52)
PRODUCED A M1/1B AT 09/0847Z AND A M3/2B AT 09/1718Z. THIS REGION
ALSO PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. LIMB PROXIMITY HAS MADE
ACCURATE WHITE LIGHT AND MAGNETIC ANALYSIS DIFFICULT. IT'S
IMPOSSIBLE TO DEFINE A DELTA CONFIGURATION AT THIS TIME, BUT MIXED
POLARITIES APPEAR MORE OBVIOUS IN THIS C-CLASS 14 SPOT GROUP. REGION
8293 (S23W18) REMAINS MODERATELY COMPLEX AND PRODUCED A C3/SF AT
08/1626Z. SOME GROWTH WAS EVIDENT IN WHITE LIGHT AS THIS SPOT GROUP,
NUMBERING AS HIGH AS 77 SPOTS, NOW COVERS AN AREA OF 580 MILLIONTHS.
REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY QUIET. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE
NUMBERED TODAY, 8300 (S29W01) AND 8301 (S20E71).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. BOTH REGIONS 8293 AND 8299 HAVE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
CONTINUED M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 08-2100Z till 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ACTIVE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
ON 12 AUG IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE DSF/CME OBSERVED ON 8 AUG.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 10 AUG till 12 AUG
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 09 AUG 154 Prognoserat 10 AUG-12 AUG 155/155/150 90 Day Mean 09 AUG 111
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 AUG 007/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 AUG 005/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 AUG-12 AUG 010/010-012/015-025/025
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 10 AUG till 12 AUG
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 20% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 25% | 50% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 15% | 35% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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