Viewing archive of tisdag, 21 juli 1998
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1998 Jul 21 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 202 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 21 JUL 1998IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 20-2100Z till 21-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THREE NEW REGIONS WERE
NUMBERED TODAY: REGION 8279, (EMERGED ON DISK AT N26E33), REGION
8280 (ROTATING INTO VIEW AT S22E76), AND 8281 (A SIMPLE A-TYPE GROUP
AT N16E73). REGION 8280 APPEARS TO HAVE MATURE PENUMBRA ON LEADER
AND TRAILER PORTIONS OF THE GROUP. REGION 8277 (S12W41) GREW
STEADILY AND EXHIBITED BRIGHT H-ALPHA PLAGE, BUT COULD ONLY MUSTER
ONE SUBFLARE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE, HOWEVER, FOR AN ISOLATED
M-CLASS FLARE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGIONS 8277 AND 8280 ARE
CONSIDERED TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SOURCE REGIONS FOR ENHANCED
ACTIVITY.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 20-2100Z till 21-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MID-LATITUDES AND
RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES. ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE LAST 24 HOURS WAS QUIET, AN INTERVAL OF ENHANCED
ACTIVITY OCCURRED FROM 0300-1200Z. REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND DATA
INDICATED THAT A SECTOR BOUNDARY CROSSING OCCURRED SHORTLY AFTER
03Z, AND WAS FOLLOWED BY FLUCTUATING INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD
CONDITIONS THAT INCLUDED SOME MODERATE NEGATIVE BZ.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 22 JUL till 24 JUL
| M-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 21 JUL 110 Prognoserat 22 JUL-24 JUL 112/112/115 90 Day Mean 21 JUL 107
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 JUL 003/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 JUL 010/009 PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 JUL-24 JUL 010/010-010/008-005/007
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 22 JUL till 24 JUL
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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