Viewing archive of söndag, 22 mars 1998

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1998 Mar 22 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 081 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 22 MAR 1998

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 21-2100Z till 22-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 8185 (S24E64) PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE WITH MINOR CENTIMETRIC RADIO BURSTS. A TYPE II SWEPT FREQUENCY BURST WAS ALSO OBSERVED WITH THE FLARE AND ANOTHER TYPE II OCCURRED FOLLOWING THE MODERATELY IMPULSIVE X-RAY FLARE. A SMALL WEAK CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED FOLLOWING THIS FLARE BUT WAS OBSERVED TO PROPAGATE OUT OF THE ECLIPTIC. THIS REGION HAS SHOWN ITSELF TO BE A MODERATE SIZE F-CLASS REGION WITH INDICATIONS OF MIXED POLARITIES. THIS REGION MAY ALSO BE TWO ABUTTED REGIONS SHARING A GENERALLY EAST-WEST NEUTRAL LINE. HOWEVER, CONFLICTING MAGNETIC INFORMATION MADE CONFIRMATION OF ABUTTED REGIONS IMPOSSIBLE. SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS EVENTS WERE ALSO OBSERVED. A SMALL FILAMENT LOCATED NEAR N27W36 FADED BETWEEN 22/1230-1901Z. SMALL REGION 8186 (N09W23) WAS VISIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND FADED MIDWAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO MODERATE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 8185 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES. REGION 8179 (S24W87) IS MAKING ITS WEST LIMB TRANSIT AND COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT. ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY, THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF AN X-CLASS FLARE FROM EITHER OF THESE REGIONS.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 21-2100Z till 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE ACTIVE INTERVAL WAS FROM 22/0900-1200Z. SOLAR WIND DATA DURING THE PERIOD SHOWED A MODERATELY HIGH SPEED, LOW DENSITY STREAM IN THE EARTH'S VICINITY. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD AND RISING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 23 MAR till 25 MAR
M-klass40%35%35%
X-klass10%10%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       22 MAR 128
  Prognoserat   23 MAR-25 MAR  120/115/103
  90 Day Mean        22 MAR 098
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 MAR  020/033
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 MAR  010/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 MAR-25 MAR  005/008-010/012-010/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 23 MAR till 25 MAR
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt25%25%25%
Små stormförhållanden10%10%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%05%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt30%30%35%
Små stormförhållanden10%10%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%05%

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