Viewing archive of onsdag, 10 december 1997
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1997 Dec 10 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 344 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 10 DEC 1997IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NUMEROUS OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED MINOR RADIO SWEEPS OCCURRED EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT
ACTIVITY TAPERED OFF BY 10/1000UT. REGION 8119 (N33W25), AN 8 SPOT DAO
GROUP, IS THE ONLY REGION SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF GROWTH BUT STILL
MAINTAINS A SIMPLE MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. NEW REGION 8121 (N25W55),
A 3 SPOT BXO, WAS NUMBERED TODAY. ALL REMAINING REGIONS ARE SMALL
AND SHOWING SIGNS OF DECAY.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW. REGION 8119 IS THE ONLY REGION POSING ANY THREAT BUT NEEDS
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BEFORE C-CLASS FLARING IS LIKELY.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD BEGAN THE PERIOD AT QUIET LEVELS BUT QUICKLY
ESCALATED TO UNSETTLED AT 10/0600UT AND ACTIVE CONDITIONS AT
10/1200UT. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED SINCE. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS A RESULT OF THE 6 DECEMBER VERY LONG DURATION C1
FLARE AND ASSOCIATED HALO/CME.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THROUGH TOMORROW BECOMING
QUIET TO UNSETTLED LATE. EXPECT QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ON
DAY 2 AND 3.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 11 DEC till 13 DEC
| M-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 10 DEC 095 Prognoserat 11 DEC-13 DEC 093/091/093 90 Day Mean 10 DEC 094
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 DEC 001/002 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 DEC 020/017 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 DEC-13 DEC 020/015-010/010-010/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 11 DEC till 13 DEC
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 15% | 05% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 20% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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