Viewing archive of måndag, 24 november 1997
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1997 Nov 24 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 328 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 24 NOV 1997IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 23-2100Z till 24-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. AN OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED M1 FLARE OCCURRED AT 24/1950Z. SOON ANALYSTS WERE
OBSERVING THE SUN DURING THE EVENT AND THEY DID NOT OBSERVE ANY
ENHANCEMENT IN CURRENT DISK REGIONS. OLD REGION 8103 IS DUE TO
RETURN AT THE NORTHEAST LIMB IN ABOUT A DAY AND A HALF AND THIS
COULD BE THE SOURCE OF THE M1. REGION 8103 WAS GROWING AT WEST LIMB
TRANSIT AND RECENT SPACE-BASED IMAGES SHOW ENHANCED EMISSION OVER
THE NORTHEAST LIMB. REGION 8108 (N20W65) PRODUCED A C3/1F AT
24/0400Z. THIS REGION DISPLAYED DECAY AND CONTINUED REDUCTION OF
MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. OTHER DISK REGIONS SHOWED LITTLE EVOLUTION.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8108 SHOULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS
BUT AT A DECREASING FREQUENCY. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE FLARE
POTENCY OF A REGION BEHIND THE LIMB. A PERSISTENCE FORECAST ARGUES
FOR OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 23-2100Z till 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. NEAR 24/1200Z, SOLAR
WIND VELOCITY DROPPED TO NEAR 450 KM/S. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BECAME HIGH DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 25 NOV till 27 NOV
| M-klass | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 24 NOV 103 Prognoserat 25 NOV-27 NOV 103/107/105 90 Day Mean 24 NOV 092
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 NOV 052/060 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 NOV 007/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 NOV-27 NOV 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 25 NOV till 27 NOV
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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