Viewing archive of måndag, 22 september 1997
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1997 Sep 22 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 265 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 22 SEP 1997IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 21-2100Z till 22-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT A LOW LEVEL. REGION 8088
(S28E39) EMERGED AT A RAPID PACE AND PRODUCED THE MAJORITY OF THE
C-CLASS FLARES. THE LARGEST WAS A C5/SF EVENT AT 22/1817Z. THIS
REGION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX AT THIS TIME.
REGION 8087 (S22E58) PRODUCED TWO SMALL C-CLASS FLARES DURING THE
PERIOD.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY
LOW WITH REGION 8088 BEING THE PRIMARY C-CLASS FLARE PRODUCER.
SHOULD GROWTH HERE CONTINUE AT THE CURRENT PACE, SMALL M-CLASS
EVENTS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 21-2100Z till 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD BEGAN THE PERIOD AT ACTIVE LEVELS. SOLAR WIND
DATA INDICATED A MODERATE DENSITY INCREASE (TO 40 P/CC) DURING THAT
TIME. IT IS POSTULATED THAT THE EARTH RECEIVED AN OBLIQUE STRIKE
FROM A CME OBSERVED FROM THE NORTHWEST LIMB ON 17 SEP. AFTER
22/0600Z THE FIELD RAPIDLY REACHED QUIET LEVELS AND CONTINUED SO FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING 24-25 SEP.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 23 SEP till 25 SEP
| M-klass | 20% | 30% | 35% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 22 SEP 089 Prognoserat 23 SEP-25 SEP 091/093/095 90 Day Mean 22 SEP 081
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 SEP 012/015 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 SEP 011/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 SEP-25 SEP 005/005-008/012-008/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 23 SEP till 25 SEP
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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