Viewing archive of fredag, 23 maj 1997
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1997 May 23 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 143 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 23 MAY 1997IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 22-2100Z till 23-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. REGION 8040 (N07W40)
DECAYED AND PRODUCED ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS. A SMALL REGION ROTATED
AROUND THE LIMB AND WAS NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 8046 (S26E68). THE
LARGE PROMINENCES ON THE SOUTHEAST LIMB ON 22 MAY FADED SOMETIME
BEFORE 23/1500Z.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT VERY
LOW LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF
A C-CLASS FLARE FROM DECAYING REGION 8040.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 22-2100Z till 23-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE DISTURBANCE RELATED TO THE CME
ON 21 MAY HAS NOT MATERIALIZED AT THE TIME INITIALLY EXPECTED.
ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE BELOW EVENT
THRESHOLD.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ON 24 MAY AND EARLY
25 MAY. ISOLATED MAJOR STORMING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS DISTURBANCE.
THE CONFIDENCE THAT THE CME WILL IMPACT THE EARTH IS HIGH DUE TO THE
NATURE OF SPACE OBSERVATIONS OF THE EVENT. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF
IMPACT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON 26 MAY AFTER THE DISTURBANCE PASSES.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 24 MAY till 26 MAY
| M-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 23 MAY 076 Prognoserat 24 MAY-26 MAY 076/076/076 90 Day Mean 23 MAY 074
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 MAY 005/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 MAY 008/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 MAY-26 MAY 025/025-015/010-005/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 24 MAY till 26 MAY
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 20% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 01% |
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