Viewing archive of torsdag, 11 juli 1996
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1996 Jul 11 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 193 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 11 JUL 1996IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW LEVELS. REGION 7978
(S11W64) PRODUCED SEVERAL LOW LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES. DECAY
CONTINUED IN THIS REGION AND THE DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION
FADED DUE TO LOSS OF PENUMBRAE IN THE CENTER OF THE REGION.
SOME MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY REMAINS BUT TO A MUCH LESSER DEGREE
THAN SEVERAL DAYS AGO.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY LOW. REGION 7978 RETAINS THE CAPABILITY OF
PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE BUT THIS IS BECOMING LESS
LIKELY AS DECAY CONTINUES.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE DISTURBANCE FROM THE
X2 FLARE AND SUSPECTED CME ON 09 JUL DID NOT ARRIVE AT THE
TIME EXPECTED. HOWEVER, FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE CME
INDICATES THAT IT WAS QUITE BROAD IN LONGITUDINAL EXTENT
AND TRAVELLING AT A VELOCITY OF APPROXIMATELY 400 KM/S.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BECOME UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE ON 12 JUL. A 400 KM/S
VELOCITY OF THE CME EQUATES TO AN ARRIVAL TIME OF NEAR 1200Z
ON 12 JUL. PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING LATE ON 12 JUL AND EARLY
ON 13 JUL ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MAJOR STORMING POSSIBLE.
THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD SUBSIDE ON 14 JUL AND UNSETTLED TO
SLIGHTLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THAT DAY.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 12 JUL till 14 JUL
| M-klass | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 11 JUL 077 Prognoserat 12 JUL-14 JUL 076/074/070 90 Day Mean 11 JUL 070
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 JUL 004/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 JUL 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 JUL-14 JUL 020/020-015/015-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 12 JUL till 14 JUL
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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