Просмотр архива за вторник, 1 апреля 2003
Отчет о солнечной активности
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Отчет о солнечно-геофизической активности 2003 Apr 01 2200 UTC
Подготовлено NOAA © SWPC и представлено SpaceWeatherLive.comСовместный отчет USAF/NOAA о солнечной и геофизической активности
Количество SD 091 на уровне 2200Z 01 Apr 2003
IA. Анализ активных солнечных регионов и активности от 31 - 2100Z до 01 - 2100Z
Solar activity was at low levels. There were only two
C-class flares from Regions 323 (S08W43) and 318 (S12W65).
IB. Прогноз солнечной активности
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a small chance for an isolated M-Class flare from either
Region 323 (S08W43), Region 325 (N12E14), or Region 324 (S11W08).
IIA. Обзор геофизической активности от 31 - 2100Z до 01 - 2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels, with
occasional major storming at high latitudes. The high speed stream
that began early on 30 March continued during the period. The
greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels.
IIB. Прогноз геофизической активности
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. The high speed stream
which has impacted earth for the previous two days will pass by day
two.
III. Вероятность события от 02 - Apr до 04 - Apr
M-класс | 30% | 30% | 30% |
X-класс | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Протон | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Радиоизлучение λ = 10,7см
Наблюдаемый 01 Apr 153
Прогнозируемый 02 Apr-04 Apr 155/150/145
среднее значение за последние 3 месяца 01 Apr 134
V. Геомагнитные индексы
Наблюдаемый Afr/Ap 31 Mar 015/031
По оценкам Afr/Ap 01 Apr 017/015
Прогнозируемый Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr 010/012-010/010-008/010
VI. Вероятность геомагнитной активности с 02 - Apr до 04 - Apr
A. Средние широты |
Активно | 40% | 30% | 30% |
Слабый шторм | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Большой шторм | 05% | 05% | 05% |
B. Высокие широты |
Активно | 45% | 30% | 30% |
Слабый шторм | 15% | 10% | 10% |
Большой шторм | 10% | 05% | 05% |
VII. Comments: Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.
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