Обсуждение космического прогноза погоды

Существующий: 2023 Dec 07 0030 UTC
Подготовлено Министерством торговли США, NOAA, Центром прогнозирования космической погоды и представлено SpaceWeatherLive.com

Солнечная активность

Суточный итог

Solar activity remained at moderate levels as Region 3513 (N19E53, Dao/beta) produced an M2.1/2n flare at 06/0541 UTC and an M2.3 flare at 06/2144 UTC. This region was also responsible for a C9.6/Sn flare at 06/0817 UTC, along with several additional C-class flares. Region 3507 (N08W25, Cso/Beta) further increased the number of spots around its periphery, but remained inactive. Region 3510 (S15W20, Dai/beta) exhibited growth in its intermediate spots, while Region 3511 (S22W19, Dao/beta-gamma) remained the most magnetically complex region on the disk. Both regions were mostly inactive. Region 3514 (N09E65, Dao/Beta) was numbered this period, but did not appear to show much activity. An approximately 11 degree-long DSF centered near N1E06 was noted by USAF observatories. This event can be seen in GOES-SUVI 304 Angstroms beginning around 06/0436 UTC and appears to have been mostly reabsorbed. However, a rather narrow, faint CME can can be seen in NASA C2 coronagraph imagery just after 06/0800 UTC that may be associated with this event. Although, timing seems suspect in relation to the source event, analysis and modeling of this particular CME is ongoing at this time.

Прогноз

Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares on 07-09 Dec.

Заряженные частицы

Суточный итог

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Прогноз

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high levels on 07-09 Dec due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels on 07-09 Dec.

Солнечный ветер

Суточный итог

Solar wind speed gradually decreased from over 625 km/s to end the period near 550 km/s as negative CH HSS influence began to subside. Total field strength was steady near 4 nT, Bz fluctuated between +/- 4 nT, and Phi angle remained in a predominately negative orientation.

Прогноз

CH HSS effects are expected to continue its decreasing trend on 07 Dec, with conditions returning to near background levels by 08-09 Dec.

Геопространство

Суточный итог

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Прогноз

Quiet to unsettled levels are expected, with a lingering chance for an isolated active period, on 07 Dec as CH HSS influence persists. Mostly quiet levels should return by 08-09 Dec as CH HSS influences dissipate.