Просмотр архива за четверг, 27 сентября 2001
Отчет о солнечной активности
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Отчет о солнечно-геофизической активности 2001 Sep 27 2200 UTCПодготовлено NOAA © SWPC и представлено SpaceWeatherLive.com
Совместный отчет USAF/NOAA о солнечной и геофизической активности
Количество SD 270 на уровне 2200Z 27 Sep 2001IA. Анализ активных солнечных регионов и активности от 26 - 2100Z до 27 - 2100Z Solar activity has been moderate for the past 24 hours.
A long duration M1 x-ray event began at 0855 UTC, attained maximum
at 1213 UTC, and ended at 1406 UTC. Although the source for the
event was not certain, the most likely candidate appears to be a set
of loops that were observed in EIT data just behind the northwest
limb. It should be noted, however, that Region 9628 (S18W37) was
undergoing frequent plage brightenings during the course of the
event and may also have been a contributor. Region 9628 showed
slight decay today, but continues to possess strong magnetic fields,
including a delta near the center of the region. Region 9632
(S19W21) also continues to look impressive with a strong delta
across an east-west inversion line. In spite of their size and
complexity, none of the flares observed from these regions exceeded
the subfaint level. Region 9634 (N12E11) showed some growth today as
did Region 9637 (S14E32). Two new spot groups were assigned today:
Region 9640 (N10E67) and Region 9641 (S14E77). Both appear to be
quiet and stable. A CME was observed to enter the C2 field of view
at 0854 UTC today over the southwest limb and appears to have
characteristics of a partial halo event.
IB. Прогноз солнечной активности
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. There is a fair chance for an isolated major flare event
during the next 3 days, with Regions 9628 and 9632 being the most
likely sources.
IIA. Обзор геофизической активности от 26 - 2100Z до 27 - 2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event that began at 24/1215 UTC continued to decline today.
Flux values had decreased to 270 pfu by forecast issue time.
IIB. Прогноз геофизической активности
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next 24 hours. An increase
to unsettled to slightly active is predicted for the 2nd and 3rd
days as a response to a favorably positioned coronal hole. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end sometime late
tomorrow or perhaps early on day two.
III. Вероятность события от 28 - Sep до 30 - Sep
| M-класс | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| X-класс | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Протон | 99% | 75% | 35% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Радиоизлучение λ = 10,7см
Наблюдаемый 27 Sep 270 Прогнозируемый 28 Sep-30 Sep 265/260/260 среднее значение за последние 3 месяца 27 Sep 172
V. Геомагнитные индексы
Наблюдаемый Afr/Ap 26 Sep 013/024 По оценкам Afr/Ap 27 Sep 010/010 Прогнозируемый Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 010/010-015/015-015/018
VI. Вероятность геомагнитной активности с 28 - Sep до 30 - Sep
| A. Средние широты | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Активно | 25% | 45% | 45% |
| Слабый шторм | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Большой шторм | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| B. Высокие широты | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Активно | 25% | 45% | 45% |
| Слабый шторм | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Большой шторм | 05% | 15% | 15% |
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