Просмотр архива за четверг, 20 июля 2000
Отчет о солнечной активности
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Отчет о солнечно-геофизической активности 2000 Jul 20 2200 UTCПодготовлено NOAA © SWPC и представлено SpaceWeatherLive.com
Совместный отчет USAF/NOAA о солнечной и геофизической активности
Количество SD 202 на уровне 2200Z 20 JUL 2000IA. Анализ активных солнечных регионов и активности от 19 - 2100Z до 20 - 2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT A HIGH LEVEL. REGION 9087
(S11W11) PRODUCED AN IMPULSIVE M5/1B AT 20/2025Z WITH A 10 CM BURST
OF 490 SFU. THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED A MODERATE DURATION M3/1F AT
20/1006Z WITH MEDIUM INTENSITY CENTIMETRIC BURSTS. THE GROWTH RATE
IN THIS REGION SLOWED. AREAS OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY REMAINED BUT
THE STEEP GRADIENTS OBSERVED IN THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS APPEAR TO HAVE
LESSENED. REGION 9097 (N05E55) PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS.
THIS REGION SHOWED A WEAK DELTA CONFIGURATION IN ITS LEADER SPOT.
REGION 9090 (N11E21) EXHIBITED SOME LEADER GROWTH AND SEVERAL
C-CLASS EVENTS ORIGINATED FROM THAT AREA. A TYPE II BURST OCCURRED
AT 20/1652Z WITH NO APPROPRIATE OPTICAL COUNTERPART.
IB. Прогноз солнечной активности
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MODERATE TO
HIGH FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 9087 RETAINS THE CAPABILITY OF
PRODUCING OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENTS. THIS REGION IS ALSO CAPABLE OF
GENERATING ISOLATED X-CLASS FLARES. OTHER DISK REGIONS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO FULL DISK M-CLASS FLARE PRODUCTION.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD BEGAN THE PERIOD AT MINOR TO MAJOR STORM
LEVELS. FOLLOWING THE SUDDEN IMPULSE AT 19/1526Z, BZ WAS NORTHWARD
UNTIL IT TURNED SOUTHWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 20/0000Z AND STORM
CONDITIONS ENSUED. BZ BECAME NORTHWARD AGAIN AROUND 20/1300Z AND
THE FIELD CALMED TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. THE PROTON EVENT THAT BEGAN
ON 14 JULY ENDED AT 19/2330Z.
IIB. Прогноз геофизической активности
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
RETURN TO STORM LEVELS EARLY ON 21 JULY IN RESPONSE TO A SUSPECTED
(NO CORONAGRAPH DATA) MASS EJECTION WITH THE M6 FLARE ON 19 JULY.
MINOR TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED PERIODS OF
SEVERE STORMING ARE POSSIBLE. THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
22 JULY WITH UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FORECAST. QUIET TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON 23 JULY. THERE IS A MODERATE
PROBABILITY OF A SOLAR PROTON EVENT DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Вероятность события от 21 - JUL до 23 - JUL
| M-класс | 85% | 80% | 75% |
| X-класс | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Протон | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Радиоизлучение λ = 10,7см
Наблюдаемый 20 JUL 253 Прогнозируемый 21 JUL-23 JUL 245/235/230 среднее значение за последние 3 месяца 20 JUL 188
V. Геомагнитные индексы
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 JUL 010/015 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 JUL 038/052 PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 JUL-23 JUL 050/050-025/020-015/015
VI. Вероятность геомагнитной активности с 21 - JUL до 23 - JUL
| A. Средние широты | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Активно | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Слабый шторм | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Большой шторм | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Высокие широты | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Активно | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Слабый шторм | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Большой шторм | 30% | 10% | 05% |
<< Перейти на сегодняшнюю страницу обзора
Последние новости
суббота, 4 мая 2024
Sunspot region 3663, X1 solar flare
понедельник, 22 апреля 2024
Lot's of sunspots! Big chance for major flare activity?
суббота, 23 марта 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
Последние сообщения с форума
AR3663 216Weakening of Earths magnetic field due to geomagnetic excursion 17Filaments and prominences 72CME Imagery isn't updating since May 3rd. 9AR3664 38
Больше темПоддержка SpaceWeatherLive.com!
Большое количество посетителей приходят на сайт SpaceWeatherLive, чтобы получить информацию о состоянии Солнца, его активности или возможном появлении полярного сияния. Однако с увеличением трафика растет и стоимость хостинга. Если вы находите наш сайт SpaceWeatherLive.com полезным, пожалуйста, подумайте о пожертвовании на его содержание и поддержку!
Факты о космической погоде
| Последняя X-вспышка | 06/05/2024 | X4.4 |
| Последняя M-вспышка | 06/05/2024 | M1.5 |
| Последняя геомагнитная буря | 02/05/2024 | Kp7- (G3) |
| Безупречные дни | |
|---|---|
| Последний безупречный день | 08/06/2022 |
| Среднемесячное количество солнечных пятен | |
|---|---|
| апреля 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| Last 30 days | 156.6 +63.6 |