SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8886 (S12W87) PRODUCED TODAY'S LARGEST EVENT, AN M4/SN AT 1046Z. THE REGION EXHIBITED BRIGHT PLAGE WITH FREQUENT FLUCTUATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS IT APPROACHED THE WEST LIMB. REGION 8882 (S15W70) ALSO PRODUCED AN M-CLASS EVENT: AN M3/1B AT 0214Z WHICH WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP EVENT. THIS REGION IS CURRENTLY THE LARGEST ON THE DISK, BUT WAS SHOWING SOME EARLY INDICATORS OF DECAY NEAR DAY'S END. REGION 8891 (S15W17) IS ALSO LARGE BUT WAS STABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A FAINT CME COULD BE OBSERVED WITH THE SOHO DATA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LIMB, BEGINNING AT 0454Z. A SUBSEQUENT BRIGHT, LARGE CME WAS OBSERVED ON THE SOUTHEAST LIMB BEGINNING AT 0654Z. NEITHER OF THESE CME'S HAD AN OBVIOUS ASSOCIATED COUNTERPART ON THE DISK, IMPLYING THAT THEY BOTH ORIGINATED FROM BEHIND THE SOLAR LIMB.

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED MAJOR FLARE OR PROTON PRODUCING FLARE FROM REGION 8882, OR POSSIBLY REGIONS 8886 OR 8891.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY LEVELS MAY OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A GLANCING BLOW FROM RECENT CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE M6 AND X1 FLARES OF 02 MARCH. A DIRECT HIT IS NOT LIKELY SINCE NEITHER OF THESE CME'S WERE OBSERVED AS HALO CME'S AND ARE NOT THOUGHT TO BE DIRECTED TOWARDS THE EARTH.

  Наблюдаемый       03 MAR 204
  Прогнозируемый   04 MAR-06 MAR  200/195/190
  среднее значение за последние 3 месяца        03 MAR 169

OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 MAR  007/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 MAR  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 MAR-06 MAR  015/028-015/025-010/020