Affichage des archives de vendredi, 18 avril 2014
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2014 Apr 18 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 108 publié à 2200Z le 18 Apr 2014IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 17-2100Z au 18-2100Z Solar activity reached high levels. Region 2036 (S16W41,
Dhc/beta-gamma) produced an M7 flare at 18/1303 UTC, which was the
largest flare of the period. It was accompanied by a Tenflare (1000
sfu), a Castelli-U signature, as well as Type II (851 km/s) and Type IV
radio emissions. An asymmetric halo CME was subsequently observed in
SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 18/1325 UTC. Analysis suggested the
ejecta was moving at approximately 1000 km/s and Earth-directed.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(19 Apr, 20 Apr, 21 Apr).
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 17-2100Z au 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 540 km/s at
18/1845Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 18/0207Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -8 nT at 18/0243Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 38 pfu at 18/1955Z.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (19 Apr) and quiet to minor
storm levels on days two and three (20 Apr, 21 Apr) with a chance for
major storm levels on day two (20 Apr). Protons are expected to remain
above the 10 pfu threshold on day one (19 Apr), are expected to cross
threshold on day two (20 Apr) and have a chance of crossing threshold on
day three (21 Apr).
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 19 Apr au 21 Apr
| Classe M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 99% | 75% | 50% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 18 Apr 172 Prévisionnel 19 Apr-21 Apr 175/175/175 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 18 Apr 156
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 17 Apr 011/011 Estimé Afr/Ap 18 Apr 007/008 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr 009/012-018/025-017/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 19 Apr au 21 Apr
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 35% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 55% | 75% | 60% |
Dernières nouvelles
lundi, 22 avril 2024
Lot's of sunspots! Big chance for major flare activity?
samedi, 23 mars 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
mercredi, 20 mars 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
Forum
AR3654 1IMF - BT strength 5What are these long and thin eruptions? 6AR 3637, 3638, 3643 89Unproven theories 341
Plus de messages du forumAidez SpaceWeatherLive.com !
Vous êtes de plus en plus nombreux à consulter SpaceWeatherLive pour suivre l'activité solaire ou aurorale, et avec le traffic les coûts du serveur augmentent. Si vous appréciez SpaceWeatherLive, soutenez notre projet en faisant un don afin que nous puissions continuer à vous informer !
La Météo Spatiale en faits
| Dernière classe X | 28/03/2024 | X1.1 |
| Dernière classe M | 25/04/2024 | M1.3 |
| Dernier orage géomagnétique | 19/04/2024 | Kp7 (G3) |
| Jours sans taches solaires | |
|---|---|
| Dernier jour sans taches solaires | 08/06/2022 |
| Nombre mensuel moyen de taches solaires | |
|---|---|
| mars 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |
| Last 30 days | 135.5 +27.6 |