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Rapport d'activité solaire

Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2012 Nov 21 2200 UTC
Fait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com

Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique

SDF numéro 326 publié à 2200Z le 21 Nov 2012

IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 20-2100Z au 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M3 event at 21/1530Z from Region 1618 (N09E01) associated with Type IV and II radio sweeps (estimated velocity of 1918 km/s), a 200 sfu Tenflare, and a CME. More imagery is needed to determine the trajectory, however, it is expected to be Earth-directed due to the location of the region. Region 1618 also produced an M1/1n flare at 21/0656Z associated with Type IV and II radio sweeps (estimated velocity of 720 km/s) and a CME. This CME appears to have a slight Earthward component but the majority of ejecta is directed Eastward as visible on imagery. Region 1618 developed into a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. A filament eruption occurred between 20/2305Z to 21/0200Z at around N27E17 with a 14 degree heliographic extent. This filament eruption does not appear to have a CME associated with it. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate with a chance for high levels on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov). Region 1618 is expected to produce M-class flares. A chance for an isolated X-class flare exists for this region.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 20-2100Z au 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 488 km/s at 21/0307Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 20/2228Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6.4 nT at 20/2350Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 857 pfu.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Nov). On day two (23 Nov) conditions are expected to increase to unsettled to minor storm levels with a chance for major storm levels due to the arrival of 21 and 22 Nov CMEs. Conditions are expected to decrease to unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm levels on day three (24 Nov) with CME effects combined with a favorably positioned coronal hole. A chance for a proton event exists on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov) due to a chance of high solar flare activity and a favorable position of Region 1618.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 22 Nov au 24 Nov
Classe M70%70%70%
Classe X30%30%30%
Proton30%30%30%
PCAFgreen
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
  Observé       21 Nov 140
  Prévisionnel   22 Nov-24 Nov 140/135/135
  Moyenne des 90 derniers jours        21 Nov 122

V. Indice géomagnetique A
  Observé Afr/Ap 20 Nov  010/013
  Estimé     Afr/Ap 21 Nov  007/008
  Prévisionnel    Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov  010/012-023/030-014/020

VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 22 Nov au 24 Nov
A. Latitudes moyennes
Actif20%35%40%
Tempête mineure05%30%20%
Tempête majeure/sévère01%10%05%
B. Hautes latitudes
Actif20%10%10%
Tempête mineure30%20%25%
Tempête majeure/sévère25%65%60%

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