Affichage des archives de mardi, 13 novembre 2012
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2012 Nov 13 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 318 publié à 2200Z le 13 Nov 2012IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 12-2100Z au 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
Region 1613 (S23E31) has developed a Delta magnetic configuration and
produced multiple M-class flares with associated CMEs. The largest solar
event of the period was a M6 event observed at 13/0204Z from Region
1613. Regions 1610 (S24W23) and 1611 (N12W00) have Beta Gamma magnetic
configurations. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the
disk. No CMEs observed during the period are expected to be
geoeffective.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels on days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 12-2100Z au 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
504 km/s at 13/0111Z. Total IMF reached 22.8 nT at 13/0053Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -19.5 nT at 12/2338Z. ACE data
indicated a shock arrival at 12/2216Z. A sudden impulse was observed at
12/2316Z (16 nT, as measured by the Boulder USGS magnetometer).
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is expected
to begin at active levels early on day 1 (14 Nov) as CME effects
subside. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on days 1 and 2 (14, 15
Nov) due to effects from a negative polarity coronal hole high speed
stream. On day 3 (16 Nov), conditions are expected to return to mostly
quiet levels. Protons have a slight chance of reaching alert threshold
on days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 14 Nov au 16 Nov
| Classe M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Classe X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 13 Nov 146 Prévisionnel 14 Nov-16 Nov 150/150/160 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 13 Nov 118
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 12 Nov 004/004 Estimé Afr/Ap 13 Nov 014/016 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 008/010-007/008-006/005
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 14 Nov au 16 Nov
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 30% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 25% | 25% | 05% |
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