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Rapport d'activité solaire

Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2012 Jul 17 2200 UTC
Fait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com

Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique

SDF numéro 199 publié à 2200Z le 17 Jul 2012

IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 16-2100Z au 17-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Todays activity was dominated by a very long-duration M1 flare that occurred between 1203-1904Z with maximum at 1715Z. The source region appeared to primarily be Region 1520 (S17W75), although it appears that Region 1521 (S19W85) was involved in the early phase and may have been the initial trigger for the overall event. An associated, bright CME was observed off the southwest limb beginning at 1400Z; the leading edge plane-of-sky speed was estimated to be about 960 km/s in the LASCO C3 field of view. The proximity of Regions 1519 (S17 just past west limb), 1520, and 1521 to the west limb hindered analysis of the spot groups. New Region 1524 (S18E52) was assigned and is a simple C-type sunspot group. An additional new spot group appeared to be emerging just south of Region 1524.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be moderate for the next 24 hours with 1520 and 1521 as the most likely source regions. Activity and background levels are expected to decrease significantly by the second and third days as these regions rotate beyond west limb.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 16-2100Z au 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to quiet levels with some isolated minor and major storm intervals at high latitudes. Unsettled to active levels prevailed duing the earlier part of the period and quiet to unsettled levels dominated from 17/0900Z through the end of the day. Solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft showed continued influence of the 12 July CME from the beginning of the period through about 17/0600Z. The z-component of the interplanetary magnetic field was initially negative and reached a peak negative value of about -9 nT during this latter phase of the CME passage. Nominal solar wind conditions prevailed from 17/0600Z through the end of the day. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 17/1715Z in response to todays long-duration M1 and associated CME event. The peak value observed so far was 87 PFU at 17/2030Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days. Model results for todays CME from the west limb indicate an interplanetary disturbance that is too far west to produce geomagnetic activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue through part of the first day (18 July).
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 18 Jul au 20 Jul
Classe M55%40%25%
Classe X10%10%05%
Proton95%20%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
  Observé       17 Jul 128
  Prévisionnel   18 Jul-20 Jul  115/105/095
  Moyenne des 90 derniers jours        17 Jul 129
V. Indice géomagnetique A
  Observé Afr/Ap 16 Jul  027/040
  Estimé     Afr/Ap 17 Jul  015/020
  Prévisionnel    Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul  006/005-007/005-006/005
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 18 Jul au 20 Jul
A. Latitudes moyennes
Actif05%05%05%
Tempête mineure01%01%01%
Tempête majeure/sévère01%01%01%
B. Hautes latitudes
Actif15%15%15%
Tempête mineure10%10%10%
Tempête majeure/sévère05%05%05%

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