Affichage des archives de dimanche, 11 mars 2012
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2012 Mar 11 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 071 publié à 2200Z le 11 Mar 2012IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 10-2100Z au 11-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1429 (N18W38)
exhibited little change over the period and remained a complex Ekc
spot group with Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic characteristics. New
Regions 1433 (N12E63) and 1434 (S22E58) were numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to range
from low to high levels for the next three days (12 - 14 March).
Further M-class activity is expected from Region 1429 with a chance
for an X-class flare.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 10-2100Z au 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. Solar
wind speed at the ACE spacecraft ranged from 420 km/s to 480 km/s
while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not
vary much beyond +/- 5 nT. The greater than 100 MeV proton event at
geosynchronous orbit that began at 07/0405Z, reached a maximum of 69
pfu at 07/1525Z, and ended at 10/1650Z. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event at geosynchronous orbit that began at 07/0510Z, reached
a maximum of 6530 pfu at 08/1115Z, was still ongoing at the close of
the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels with isolated
major storm periods possible on day one (12 March) as the 09 March
CME is expected to become geoeffective. On day two (13 March), the
10 March CME, associated with the M8 flare, is expected to become
geoeffective early to mid-day with minor to severe storm levels
expected. By day three (14 March), conditions are expected to
decrease to unsettled to active levels with isolated minor storm
periods possible. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected
to decrease to below event levels by 13 March.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 12 Mar au 14 Mar
| Classe M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Classe X | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Proton | 99% | 60% | 40% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 11 Mar 131 Prévisionnel 12 Mar-14 Mar 130/130/130 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 11 Mar 125
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 10 Mar 017/018 Estimé Afr/Ap 11 Mar 010/012 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 022/030-030/050-012/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 12 Mar au 14 Mar
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 30% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 25% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 15% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 30% | 60% | 15% |
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