Affichage des archives de dimanche, 12 février 2012
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2012 Feb 12 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 043 publié à 2200Z le 12 Feb 2012IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 11-2100Z au 12-2100Z Solar activity was low due to multiple C-class events
from new Region 1419 (N28E77) which rotated onto the disk as a
C-type group. This new spot group heralds the return of old Region
1402. New Region 1418 (S24E18) evolved on the disk as a B-type
group while new Region 1420 (S13E77) rotated onto the disk as an
H-type group. Region 1416 (S19W15) elongated along its axis and was
classified as an E-type Beta group. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed during the period.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class activity, and a slight chance for X-class
activity, for the next three days (13 - 15 February).
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 11-2100Z au 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. ACE solar wind speeds
were steady through the period at about 340 km/s. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly north with a 3-hour
period of southward Bz (-5 nT) from about 12/0600 - 0900Z. During
this 3-hour period, the phi angle switched from a positive (away) to
a negative (toward) orientation.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 February)
due to coronal hole high speed stream effects. Late on day one and
through day two (14 February), field activity is expected to
increase to unsettled to active levels, with high latitude minor
storm intervals. This increase in activity is due to anticipated
effects from the 10 February CME. Day three (15 February) will see
a return of mostly quiet to unsettled levels as CME effects subside.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 13 Feb au 15 Feb
| Classe M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 12 Feb 110 Prévisionnel 13 Feb-15 Feb 120/125/130 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 12 Feb 134
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 11 Feb 003/004 Estimé Afr/Ap 12 Feb 004/005 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 011/012-014/018-006/008
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 13 Feb au 15 Feb
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 40% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 50% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 30% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 10% | 01% |
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