Affichage des archives de samedi, 1 octobre 2011
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2011 Oct 01 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 274 publié à 2200Z le 01 Oct 2011IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 30-2100Z au 01-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 1305 (N12W12)
produced an M1/1n flare at 01/0959Z associated with an
Earth-directed CME. The CME became visible in STEREO imagery at
01/1109Z and has an estimated speed of 500 km/s. Region 1302
(N16W41) produced a Sf optical flare immediately before the M1 flare
at 01/0917Z. The two events were associated with a pair of Type II
Sweeps (620 km/s at 01/0906Z and 850 km/s at 01/0955Z), a Type IV
Sweep and a 180 sfu Tenflare. Region 1305 has grown slightly in area
and spot number and has a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region
1302 maintains an area of 700 millionths and a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with a slight chance for an X-class event from Regions
1302 and 1305 for the next three days (02-04 October).
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 30-2100Z au 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods from 01/0000-0600Z as measured by the Boulder magnetometer.
The activity was a result of multiple solar sector boundary
crossings. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (02 October) due to
effects from the coronal hole high speed stream and possible effects
from the CME observed on 29 September. Mostly quiet conditions are
expected on day two (03 October). Quiet to unsettled conditions with
a chance for active and isolated minor storm periods are expected on
day three (04 October) due to a combination of the CMEs observed on
30 September and 01 October. The two CMEs are due to arrive early
and late on day three, respectively.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 02 Oct au 04 Oct
| Classe M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Classe X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 01 Oct 137 Prévisionnel 02 Oct-04 Oct 140/140/140 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 01 Oct 111
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 30 Sep 005/008 Estimé Afr/Ap 01 Oct 012/012 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 008/008-005/005-015/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 02 Oct au 04 Oct
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 10% | 45% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 01% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 15% | 45% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 01% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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